East Coast Low Update & Forecast - 30/04/15

I have an East Coast Low update,and forecast for you!
In brief , heavy rain likely for the Sunshine Coast,Brisbane,and Northern Rivers, tonight and tomorrow,as a low develops off the Southern QLD coast. Totals are likely to reach 100-200mms. Lighter more general rain expected further west and south.

This event is starting to crank up with widespread rain occurring north of Brisbane. Rain at this stage is mostly light to moderate with some heavier rain just north of Brisdane and also offshore. We've seen some significant falls, with a handful of 100mm+ falls already for the event,and numerous 50-100mm falls. Thunderstorms are also firing in Western QLD in response to an upper cold pool.

Rain will continue tonight, with the risk of heavier falls developing, as a low starts to develop off the coast sometime early tomorrow morning. Where the low develops remains to be seen, however somewhere off the Sunshine Coast appears likely. This low is expected to deepen and tighten a little, strengthening winds along the coast ,and increasing the threat of very heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding. The low is expected to slowly drift south during the course of the day ,and anywhere just south of the low will experience the worst of the weather.

The threats tomorrow are:
* Heavy rain with flash flooding a likely hood for some areas.
* Strong winds near the coast.
* Dangerous surf conditions
* A few thunderstorms are likely, which may further enhance heavy rain and flash flooding should you get one.
* Waterspouts cannot be ruled out either thanks to the increased helicity near the low.
* These threats are most likely for Sunshine Coast, Brisbane,and Northern Rivers.
Areas further west are likely to see more general rain,which will prove very useful for the Darling Downs of QLD. Rain is also expected further south into NSW, with the Hunter and Northwest Slopes expected to experience it, however falls here will be lighter.

The Hunter has experienced a lot of problems of late in regards to flooding,and it won't take much to cause further problems. We will monitor this area, however we're suspecting a slow accumulation of 15-25mms for much of the Hunter tomorrow,however some heavier bursts are possible closer to the coast.

Tomorrow night we'll post a detailed forecast for Saturday. At this stage the low is expected to weaken, however 100mm falls are again possible near the coast.